Some people will tell you Italy is no criterion for any other European nation, saying the Italians have had a new government each year since 1945. They argue the phenomenon is more akin to annual Cabinet re-shuffles carried on with suitable operatic drama.
However, we are facing a very uncertain year in 2017, and since last Sunday you can add Italy to that "uncertain list." A string of elections in 2017 will pit populist forces against mainstream politicians in the European Union's founding nations.
Revolt against Europe's political status quo started in Greece, surprised many by spreading to Britain last June, and hit the US last month with the election of Donald Trump as president. Next year hardy will to come to hardy in France, Germany, Netherlands, and very probably Italy.
It is not apocalyptic to say we could be looking at the beginning of the end for the European Union as we have come to know it. That would spell a whole heap of uncertainty for Ireland, just as it looked like our fragile economic recovery might be taking root.
There is widespread disillusionment about the toughness of life in the eurozone. This is topped by anger at a perceived loss of control over immigration.
The result of a referendum in Italy and a presidential election in Austria last weekend, which saw more than four in 10 voters back a far-right candidate, signals widespread, deep divisions. Citizens in many EU member states are internally split between a rejection of the EU's guiding principles, and those who believe it badly needs change if it is to survive.
The Italian anti-establishment Five Star Movement is demanding a referendum on whether Italy should keep the euro. Such a vote would destabilise Italy's already fragile banking system and the contagion could spread to other core EU states.
Despite the happenings in Italy and elsewhere, the most important one of all to watch in 2017 is the French presidential elections run over two votes next April and May. The far-right National Front (FN) wants to return to national currencies.
We are told that the FN standard-bearer, Marine Le Pen, cannot win as the moderate right, centre and even the far-left, will rally to Francois Fillon of the centre-right Republican Party, which is basically a successor to the Gaullists. We don't need to labour the point on what we were told about Brexit and Donald Trump throughout 2016. President Le Pen is still a real prospect from a campaign which has yet to start.
The FN advocates an orderly withdrawal from the euro led by the Franco-German "motor". They want to renegotiate the EU founding treaties, a refund of France's EU budget contributions and restrictions on migration within the EU.
A Le Pen win would start the unravelling of the EU by a collision between France and Germany. Happily, in Germany the EU stalwart, Chancellor Angela Merkel, is favourite to win a fourth government term in September 2017, ranking her alongside her one-time mentor, Helmut Kohl, and their revered post-war leader, Konrad Adenauer.
For the moment, she is the main bulwark against the far-right populist and eurosceptic, Alternative for Germany, which has made gains in several regional elections. However, for many people across Europe, Ms Merkel is a big part of the EU's problems as evidenced by the Italian electorate's rejection of a reform referendum last Sunday.
Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, wanted to streamline Italy's cumbersome government by eliminating two-thirds of the Senate and stripping regions of power over policies including transportation and energy.
Mr Renzi, who has since quit, was himself a critic of Ms Merkel and blamed her for EU economic austerity slowing Italian economic growth and job creation.
We don't know when Italians will go to the polls to pick a new government, though it is looking like sometime next year. At all events it is worth keeping an eye on the country's burgeoning Five Star Movement, which wants to shake up the EU, including casting off its German-sponsored fiscal shackles.
The Five Star Movement showed its strength recently by winning the Mayor's office in Rome and Turin. It is an internet-based group that draws support from a very broad political spectrum and aims to upend Italy's elites from power and replace them with regular citizens.
It is also very vocal in demanding a referendum on Italy's eurozone membership. Political compromise does not appear to be a Five Star strong suit and so far it refuses to participate in coalitions.
Italy's anti-immigrant and regionalist Northern League, in contrast to Five Star, wants to quit the EU altogether. On June 24 last, just after the Brexit result was announced, the Northern League's leader, Matteo Salvini, announced his campaign for an "Italexit" referendum. Last weekend he welcomed the defeat of Mr Renzi's reform referendum as another step towards leaving the European Union.
Voters in the Netherlands will also go to the polls next March to select a new parliament. Here the one to watch is Geert Wilders of the far-right, PVV, or Freedom Party. Just yesterday he was convicted for inciting hatred against Moroccan immigrants, though no penalty was imposed and he dismissed it as a "politically-motivated charade".
Mr Wilders's party currently has 12 out of the 150 seats in the national parliament. It is hard to accurately estimate his current level of support and the party's loose, non-structure is reminiscent of Italy's Five Star movement.
"The PVV has no party organisation or local branches, no member or activist base, he is the only party member," a journalist summed up this week.
Regardless, BBC journalists in the Netherlands estimate the PVV could attract three million votes and up to 35 parliament seats. He has pledged to lead the country out of the EU if ever put into power and his electoral performance will warrant close scrutiny.
In most EU member states the majority still supports membership of the EU and the eurozone. According to the most recent EU survey in May, 54pc of Italians, 69pc of Austrians and 73pc of Germans support the euro.
Problems surface when you drill deeper. Only about one in three people said they had a "positive image" of the European Union.
Those who believe the "European project" is the only show around now badly need to review their thoughts and actions. It is a project which must urgently be reconnected to ordinary citizens.
Irish Independent
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