Thứ Hai, 31 tháng 10, 2016

An extraordinary twist in a very strange campaign

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Photo: AP
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Photo: AP

The iconic lines spoken by Al Pacino, playing ageing Mafia don, Michael Corleone, in 'Godfather Part III' come to mind. "Just when I thought I was out - they pull me back in."

This time last week, talk about Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the White House centred on the margin of her victory. Now, after yet another extraordinary twist in an unprecedented US presidential election, we cannot be so sure.

Mrs Clinton believed she was out of the woods on allegations that she broke the law as US Secretary of State by using a private email for official business. The FBI announced in July that she broke the rules - but did nothing criminal.

Now, a bizarre and contentious set of circumstances have led FBI boss James Comey to announce a new set of emails has been found which may be "pertinent to our investigation". It is all reminiscent of a Hollywood blockbuster centring on a discredited former New York Democratic Party congressman, Anthony Weiner.

Mr Weiner is the estranged husband of Huma Abedin, a long-time aide of Hillary Clinton. The emails showed up on a computer shared by the couple which was being examined as part of investigations into Mr Weiner's alleged serious sexual misconduct.

That has raised a row about the US constitution's guarantee of privacy. Mrs Clinton's campaign team have also raised questions about the FBI potentially breaching long-standing practice of standing well back from an election.

They also point to the US Justice Department, which was consulted by the FBI boss, advising him against publicising this latest piece of information. Mr Comey chose to disregard this advice.

The FBI boss defended his actions, saying that he had to speak given his exoneration of Mrs Clinton in July. Allegations of engaging in "vague innuendo" are countered by the reality that the FBI needs further court authorisation before it can read these emails, which surfaced when they were looking for other material.

It is a late lifeline to Republican Donald Trump, who has renewed trenchant attacks upon his rival on this issue. US pundits say 'The Donald' remains unlikely to pull off "a Brexit-style surprise" - but UK pundits said the same thing last June about Brexit.

Looked at dispassionately, Mrs Clinton appears more likely to weather this storm. The arcane arithmetic of the electoral college system, which gives each state a weighted vote to population, seems to tilt in her favour.

There is also the reality that formal polling day - tomorrow week, November 8 - is really the conclusion of the voting process. Already, 14 million people have voted early.

Even those who have yet to vote may have made up their minds. At best, this latest twist may only reinforce prejudices on each side, rather than change minds, or swing the undecided one way or the other.

But we live in strange political times. Those leaning towards Trump argue that the bigger proportion of the undecided voters are Republican supporters. There are also good grounds to mistrust the opinion polls more generally.

Yet we can say definitively that this was not the kind of final campaign week Mrs Clinton would have wanted.

Irish Independent

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